Discussion (21 September 2017)
Southwesterly flow aloft had taken over today
with embedded shortwaves moving over the region. This will result in
continued rain chances, especially along a dryline which helped
trigger convection yesterday. The main issue is placement of the
dryline, where yesterday it moved east into the Concho Valley. The
setup is very similar today though the HRRR doesn’t push the dryline
as far east as yesterday. This will mean shower and t-storm
development will be likely along a line from Ozona to Sterling City.
For the Trans-Pecos area, we could see isolated storms east of a
Pecos to Balmorhea line. Storms will dissipate with sunset and we
should see a break tomorrow as the dryline mixes out and has little
upper level support. Will keep a dry forecast in place for the
Concho Valley Friday through Sunday but rain chances will need to
stay in place for the Trans-Pecos as they’ll set on the far eastern
edge of a very strong upper trough. This upper trough will result in
likely rain chance and a chance for a heavy rain event and a big
cool down. Models are in pretty good agreement with this, so let’s
hope this continues.
Forecast (21 September 2017)
Today: Mostly sunny skies with
winds from the south at 5-15 mph. Showers and storms likely. High
temperature of 96°F.
Tonight: Mostly clear skies with
winds from the south at 5-10 mph. Overnight low of 73°F.
Friday: Partly sunny skies with
winds from the south at 5-15 mph. High temperature of 93°F.
Overnight, mostly clear skies with winds from the south at 5-10 mph.
Overnight low 72°F.
Saturday: Partly sunny skies with
winds from the south at 5-15 mph. High temperature 90°F. Overnight,
partly cloudy skies with winds the south at 5-10 mph. Overnight low
Sunday Morning: Partly
sunny skies with winds from the south at 5-10 mph. Morning
temperature of 73°F.
Expect rain chances to increase by Sunday night and continue through
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the upper
80’s Sun/Mon before cooling into the low the mid 80’s for Tue/Wed.
Weather Modification Association